I would give you a Lee Corso NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND assuming Oregon and Washington both come away from this weekend unscathed. They probably will but let’s not underestimate the Pac 12s ability to go full Pac 12. Also while Washington State is on a tailspin, the motivation and venom with which they will be playing in Seattle will have me on WV-Pitt 2007 watch.
Almost certainly it’ll all sort itself out like it always does but it’s cool to have the possibilities this wide open this late in the year. The fact that a hypothetical one loss Alabama team that knocks off the defending back to back champs does not definitively control its own destiny is wild (but the committee would 100% argue that “resume” trumps Texas beating them by double digits in Tuscaloosa in an actual real game that was played in that scenario, get mentally prepared for that Texas).
Last week I picked Rice and noted that they were 4-0 ATS as an underdog. They are now 5-0 ATS as an underdog (making me 7-3 on the year) and getting 14.5 this week. HOWEVA, there apparently isn’t a Rice beat writer that exists and can tell me whether JTD is playing this week so I’m going to give another pick in the comments today.
Sports are dumb in that they lead to weird grudges and memories. When most people think Tennessee Missouri, actually scratch that, no one aside from those two fan bases probably thinks about that game unless they turn it on and comment about the atrocious color scheme when Mizzou breaks out mustard uniforms to combat the orange. When I think Tennessee Missouri my mind immediately goes back to 2014, when Georgia was very much not the Georgia it was now. Despite beating Missouri by a million in Columbia, they did what Georgia did and lost games they had no business losing, thus needing Missouri to lose one of their final 2 conference games to win the East and go to Atlanta.
On the day Todd Gurley made his glorious, electric (kick) return to Sanford Stadium after his suspension for heinously autographing memorabilia, Missouri went to Knoxville to take on a pretty crappy Tennessee team. Tennessee gave them a good run, had their chances to win the game but ultimately tour my heart out and led to a lot of unsavory words being shouted at the TV of a friend of a friends house that probably never wanted to see me again.
Missouri would go on to basically do the exact same rope a dope the day after thanksgiving against Arkansas, and get to Atlanta only to lose by a million.
Back to back natties have healed these wounds but the scars are still on my body as a reminder. And so when I see Tennessee v Missouri for a chance to send Georgia to Atlanta, I immediately have a PTSD lean.
But leans alone don’t get you to 7-3 on the year. If you’re still reading my blog within a blog, I’m about to lay down some STATS. Missouri is getting a lot of credit for their loss to Georgia last week. I feel like I’ve seen this song and dance before though and teams that Georgia beats that were conspicuously ranked higher than you’d ever expect them to be (looking at you Kentucky and Arkansas) kind of stink from then on out.
So I looked into it for other SEC East teams. Since 2021, the week after playing Georgia they are 8-8 straight up. OK, not good but not materially atrocious especially when considering that the East as a whole has been down. But I dug deeper. How did East teams fair the week against Georgia against other East teams?
The answer: not good to the tune of 2-6 straight up. Also Tennessee has won the last two in this series by a combined score of 377 points. Also Tennessee has an actual conference championship to play for.
I would give you a Lee Corso NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND assuming Oregon and Washington both come away from this weekend unscathed. They probably will but let’s not underestimate the Pac 12s ability to go full Pac 12. Also while Washington State is on a tailspin, the motivation and venom with which they will be playing in Seattle will have me on WV-Pitt 2007 watch.
Almost certainly it’ll all sort itself out like it always does but it’s cool to have the possibilities this wide open this late in the year. The fact that a hypothetical one loss Alabama team that knocks off the defending back to back champs does not definitively control its own destiny is wild (but the committee would 100% argue that “resume” trumps Texas beating them by double digits in Tuscaloosa in an actual real game that was played in that scenario, get mentally prepared for that Texas).
Last week I picked Rice and noted that they were 4-0 ATS as an underdog. They are now 5-0 ATS as an underdog (making me 7-3 on the year) and getting 14.5 this week. HOWEVA, there apparently isn’t a Rice beat writer that exists and can tell me whether JTD is playing this week so I’m going to give another pick in the comments today.
Sports are dumb in that they lead to weird grudges and memories. When most people think Tennessee Missouri, actually scratch that, no one aside from those two fan bases probably thinks about that game unless they turn it on and comment about the atrocious color scheme when Mizzou breaks out mustard uniforms to combat the orange. When I think Tennessee Missouri my mind immediately goes back to 2014, when Georgia was very much not the Georgia it was now. Despite beating Missouri by a million in Columbia, they did what Georgia did and lost games they had no business losing, thus needing Missouri to lose one of their final 2 conference games to win the East and go to Atlanta.
On the day Todd Gurley made his glorious, electric (kick) return to Sanford Stadium after his suspension for heinously autographing memorabilia, Missouri went to Knoxville to take on a pretty crappy Tennessee team. Tennessee gave them a good run, had their chances to win the game but ultimately tour my heart out and led to a lot of unsavory words being shouted at the TV of a friend of a friends house that probably never wanted to see me again.
Missouri would go on to basically do the exact same rope a dope the day after thanksgiving against Arkansas, and get to Atlanta only to lose by a million.
Back to back natties have healed these wounds but the scars are still on my body as a reminder. And so when I see Tennessee v Missouri for a chance to send Georgia to Atlanta, I immediately have a PTSD lean.
But leans alone don’t get you to 7-3 on the year. If you’re still reading my blog within a blog, I’m about to lay down some STATS. Missouri is getting a lot of credit for their loss to Georgia last week. I feel like I’ve seen this song and dance before though and teams that Georgia beats that were conspicuously ranked higher than you’d ever expect them to be (looking at you Kentucky and Arkansas) kind of stink from then on out.
So I looked into it for other SEC East teams. Since 2021, the week after playing Georgia they are 8-8 straight up. OK, not good but not materially atrocious especially when considering that the East as a whole has been down. But I dug deeper. How did East teams fair the week against Georgia against other East teams?
The answer: not good to the tune of 2-6 straight up. Also Tennessee has won the last two in this series by a combined score of 377 points. Also Tennessee has an actual conference championship to play for.
Tennessee -1.5 to get me to 8-3
This is the type of analysis that gets a tip of the cap from yours truly. Lets keep comment crow hot!