Week 11 Preview - Chaos Potential

We are one game away from really wishing we had a 12 team Playoff

Let me get this out of the way first - Michigan is probably going to beat Penn State this week. Michigan is the superior team and also cheats so there is a reason they are favored over Penn State in Saturday’s Big Noon Saturday clash.

However…if Penn State wins…buddy we have a real mess on our hands when it comes Playoff time.

As has been well established, we don’t do a lot of Playoff talk here. However, we are definitely far enough along in the season that we can start to play out some hypotheticals. There are probably 9 teams with a true realistic shot at making the Playoff (if Ole Miss beats UGA Saturday and Alabama loses to Kentucky or Auburn, sure that number becomes 10). These 9 teams are the below, again minus Ole Miss purely because Ole Miss needs some more help than the rest of these teams to make a conference title game.

Most of these teams have very winnable games left. Looking through their schedules, here are the non-Big 10 games involving the above teams that look hairy for the Playoff contender:

THIS WEEK:

• Ole Miss vs. Georgia

NEXT WEEK:

• Georgia vs. Tennessee

• Washington vs. Oregon State

THE WEEK AFTER:

• Oregon State vs. Oregon

That’s it. That’s the list of non-Big 10 games with true Playoff impact that are truly in doubt the rest of the way. Everyone else has a cakewalk to finish the season (although Bama does have to go to Auburn, and that’s been really hairy for Bama lately). For the sake of this argument, I’m going to assume the favorite wins each of those games. This is going to result in the following:

Non Big 10 Conference Title Games:

• 12-0 Georgia vs. 11-1 Alabama. Georgia in if they win, Alabama in a good position but needs help.

• 12-0 Washington vs. 11-1 Oregon. Washington in if they win, Oregon in a good position but needs help.

• 11-1 Texas vs. 10-2 Oklahoma State. Texas could make Playoff with win, needs help like Oregon

• 12-0 Florida State vs. 11-1 Louisville. Okay I guess Louisville is still alive too but let’s assume Florida State wins

Those 4 games, unless Oklahoma State beats Texas, will result in 4 conference title winners with 1 loss or less. A really strong crop of potential Playoff teams this year.

So let’s go back to the Big 10. This week we get Michigan vs. Penn State. In two weeks we get Ohio State vs. Michigan. Those two games will decide the Big 10 East winner…or will they?

Here’s our pretty simple scenario that needs to play out:

• Penn State upsets Michigan at home tomorrow

• Michigan beats Ohio State in two weeks

• These 3 teams win the rest of their conference games

This results in these 3 teams being tied at 7-1 in the Big 10 East. How do you determine who makes the conference title game? Let’s go to the rulebook:

“The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.”

That’s a lot of words for “team who played the best Big 10 West teams makes conference title game”. Each of these three schools’ West division opponents’ conference records would be added up, and the trio of West schools with the best record would send the East school that played them to Indianapolis.

For example. the West schools Michigan is playing/has played this year are Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota. Michigan needs those three schools cumulative record to be better than the cumulative records for the teams Ohio State and Penn State played.

So…what are those standings right now:

• Penn State (ILL, NW, IOWA) - 8-10

• Michigan (NEB, PUR, MINN) - 7-11

• Ohio State (PUR, MINN, WIS) - 7-11

That’s right, folks. If Penn State beats Ohio State and Michigan beats Ohio State, Penn State is seemingly currently in the driver’s seat to make the Conference Title game. But there is still so much more to unwind here.

If you pay close attention to those West teams, you see that Michigan and Ohio State share 2 of the 3 teams and therefore kind of cancel each other out. This means that the potential tiebreak between Michigan and Ohio State is whoever wins Nebraska/Wisconsin next Saturday. And no matter who wins that game, there’s a real chance that the winner of the Big Ten East is determined based on how well Iowa does down the stretch. If Iowa wins 2 of their final 3 games (especially if they beat NEB), Penn State probably makes the Conference title game where they would play…that’s right folks it would be IOWA.

Brian Ferentz aka the potential epicenter of college football in 2023

So let’s tie this all up in a bow. A 3 way 11-1 tie in the Big 10 East likely favors Penn State right now. The other conferences all have viable Playoff participants with their conference title winners. We are possibly looking the following scenario:

• 12-1 Alabama (SEC Champ)

• 12-1 Georgia (SEC runner up)

• 12-1 Texas (Big 12 Champ)

• 13-0 Florida State (ACC Champ)

• 13-0 Washington (Pac 12 Champ)

• 12-1 Penn State (Big 10 Champ)

• 11-1 Michigan

• 11-1 Ohio State

I don’t see a world where any 11-1 team that didn’t play it’s conference title game makes the Playoff right now. And in the scenario above, given Texas’s win over Alabama, there is an extremely real chance that a Penn State win over Michigan Saturday eventually knocks both Michigan and Ohio State out of the Playoff. Your Playoff is probably 1) Florida State 2) Washington 3) Texas and 4) Alabama or Penn State if Alabama beats Georgia in an SEC Title Game.

Do you think Alabama makes it? That’s fine - then Penn State has knocked out the entire Big 10 with their win over Michigan. You think Penn State should be in? That’s fine too - Penn State has then knocked out Michigan, Ohio State, AND Alabama. And if Georgia is the one that wins the SEC? Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all miss out.

And all potentially because of a man with offenses so bad that the game he is involved in this weekend has the lowest over/under (28.5 points) in history.

Yeah that’s right, two pictures of Brian Ferentz this week. I don’t care anymore

Next year, the Big 10 (along with every other conference) is getting rid of divisions. In addition we are also going to have a 12 team Playoff next year so we can just, you know, see all of these teams play each other in a proper end of season tournament. So this may be the last potential total chaos Playoff scenario in College Football. If you want true, unadulterated, pure chaos one more time, root for Penn State this weekend.

(Also if you want the Big 10 out of the Playoff because they are the most overrated conference every season and have an all-time Playoff record of 3-7 and are filled with teams rife with scandal and put pictures of Adolf Hitler on their jumbotrons and don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore, root for Penn State who is somehow the program that is considered the “cleaner” of the two teams in Michigan/Penn State this weekend)

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THE PICKS - WEEK 11 (Last Week: 3-7-1 2023: 50-50-5). Picks below are in bold

The picks suck this year. Turns out welcoming a new baby to the family isn’t good for making gambling picks come fall. Who could have guessed.

I wouldn’t tail my picks anymore this year. I’m LITERALLY a 50/50 proposition this season and it’s only been getting worse. That being said, we march on. No explanations on picks this week - not because I don’t care but because I just need to change the mojo in this section a little bit. Picks in bold. Let’s go 11-0.

• Alabama -11 vs. Kentucky

• Georgia Tech +14.5 vs. Clemson

• Utah +9.5 vs. Washington

• Oklahoma State -2.5 vs. UCF

• Iowa -1 vs. Rutgers

• Iowa/Rutgers Under 28.5

• Western Kentucky -5 vs. New Mexico State

• Florida +15 vs. LSU

• Houston -2 vs. Cincinnati

• TCU +12.5 vs. Texas

• Georgia/Ole Miss Under 58.8

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Want to see a fumblerooski? I thought so. Have a good weekend!