Week 4 Preview - The Storm
What a week we have in store
As discussed last week, this season was already starting to look like an absolute banger of a season. Just a delight of a season week in and week out with unpredictability lurking around every corner. I was already feeling good.
And then the following score happened last Saturday:
Are you kidding me?? USF winning after the first quarter? Tied 3-3 at halftime?? Alabama looking like absolute garbage in a game delayed by weather in a pro stadium in Tampa against one of the worst teams in FBS football?
I didn’t even care (that much) that UGA was looking like their now customary first half garbage against South Carolina. This was just fantastic. And yeah, sure, Bama ended up winning. But this is the stupid stuff that makes college football so great.
We are so early in what is clearly such a great season. There are so many teams that have so much to play for right now in a season that is as open as any season we have seen in at least a decade. So many great fantastic storylines that we could focus on as a sport.
So what does ESPN do on September 19th? They roll out a College Football Playoff “create a path” College Football Playoff tool:
This sucks. It’s mid-September. As I finish writing this, it is LITERALLY the 21st of September…
Why are we talking about the Playoff right now, ESPN? What the hell is wrong with you? Nobody is asking for this, other than maybe Texas fans who finally get to realistically picture themselves playing in a game that matters in January for the first time in 18 years. There is SO much wonderful college football to enjoy the rest of this season. Can we wait until, I don’t know, maybe November to talk about this? Cool?
Here at Fading Tuesday, we are going to focus on the actual incredible football this week, including but not limited to:
The potentially rotting corpse of Alabama against Lane Kiffin, who by the way is just completely trolling Nick Saban now with the help of Taylor Swift.
The Deion traveling circus going to Eugene, Oregon to play, by far, the best team Colorado has played this season in the Oregon Ducks. For all of the fanfare around Deion, don’t forget Oregon HC Dan Lanning said this about Colorado just a few weeks ago when Colorado left the Pac-12: “I'm trying to remember what they won to affect this conference. I don't remember. Do you remember them winning anything? I don't remember them winning anything”. Hell yes. Also then Oregon left the Pac-12 like 2 weeks later. That was cool.
Clemson trying to hang on to national relevancy against surging Florida State. Either Florida State is officially, 100%, unequivocally back or Clemson has rescued themselves from the throes of mediocrity.
Ohio State visiting Notre Dame in maybe the all-time helmet game of helmet games. And it’s not just a helmet game. These teams are both legitimately national title contenders this year. This game should kick 76 kinds of ass and somehow it feels like an undercard this week.
With all of that in mind to set the stage for Week 4, let’s dive into the picks.
Somehow, this looks like it may not be the best college football weekend of the year. There is a good chance that day is going to be November 11th as we look ahead to that schedule:
The reason I point this out here is to make friend-of-the-blog Kyle feel better. Kyle is going to be in Mexico this weekend on a wonderful yet extremely poorly timed vacation. Kyle, you need to enjoy this wildly ill-timed vacation. Don’t watch football while you are on this very questionably planned vacation. You are in Mexico. Just enjoy the sand and the margaritas and everything that comes with a wonderful time there…you poor fool.
With apologies to Kyle, let’s make some picks.
THE PICKS - WEEK 4 (Last Week: 7-4; 2023: 17-16)
Last week was a 7-4 week that, frankly, could and should have been better (*glares at Georgia Tech/Ole Miss*). This has us feeling pretty good as we get the record back above .500 this season.
Long time readers of the blog know that I don’t often pick the biggest games of the week (unless you think Tulane, Eastern Michigan, and Oregon State games are the biggest games of the week), but this week we are getting involved in some of the biggest matchups. Starting with:
Clemson +2 vs. Florida State - Y’all know I hate Dabo. But, Clemson’s defensive strength should be able to neutralize Florida State’s offensive prowess (Godfather know big words well) and I think Clemson is starting to find an offensive rhythm, albeit against terrible overmatched competition. Also don’t underrate Clemson’s homefield advantage here. Clemson has struggled in big games as of late, but most of their struggles occur on the road or in a neutral site environment.
Rutgers +24 vs. Michigan - This might be a trap. Rutgers has started the season playing very well and covering all 3 spreads, Michigan not so much. Michigan gets Harbaugh back so maybe they are more sharp here, but Rutgers has given Michigan fits in the past few years so we will take the 24 in a lower scoring affair.
Texas A&M -8.5 vs. Auburn - I think Texas A&M is pretty good. There, I said it. I know it’s not the “popular” thing to say these days and we like to make fun of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at A&M, but A&M’s new offense might run an overmatched Auburn off the field here. A&M absolutely has defensive issues, but I am not sure Auburn has the personnel to exploit them. Give me the Aggies.
SMU +7 vs. TCU - You don’t care why I am taking SMU here. I just am. Next.
Oregon -21 vs. Colorado - Colorado’s best player, Travis Hunter, was playing 120 snaps a game in their wins against TCU and Nebraska. He gets knocked out early against Colorado State on the cheapest of cheap shots and not only does Colorado get lucky to win against a poor Colorado State team, Hunter now he has a lacerated liver. If I ever have a lacerated liver, just pull the plug on me man I’m done. Game over. Anyways, I think this is an impossible spot for Colorado. Oregon is putting up 50+.
Ole Miss +6.5 vs. Alabama - I know everyone is on Ole Miss and I should lean the other way and pick Bama. I don’t care. I can’t play Alabama right now. Alabama has the worst sack rate in all of the Power 5 conferences. You can’t just “fix” offensive line play in a week or 2. This is a real issue. Bama might win, but it’s a close game either way.
Louisville -14 vs. Boston College - We last saw Boston College almost beating Florida State. Now they are giving 2 touchdowns to unranked Louisville? Yessir. Louisville wins big.
Tennessee -21.5 vs. UTSA - UTSA gave up 37 to Army’s new non-triple option offense. Tennessee really struggled last time out, so I expect this to be a neck crack game for Tennessee as they get things right against a seemingly poor defense.
Rice -2.5 vs. South Florida - As harped on above, we last saw USF almost beat Alabama. Now they are an underdog to Rice? Yessir. Give me JT Daniels again.
The Godfather winning money on JT Daniels every week Eastern Michigan +6.5 vs. Jacksonville State - Speaking of “again”…EMU as an underdog. Just do it. Long time readers know the deal here.
Oregon State -3 vs. Washington State - Aka the “Battle of the Pac-2”. If I finally start betting Oregon State every week and they start not covering every week after years of covering 70% of spreads a year, this is an all-time Godfather hex and also definitely not the first time The Godfather couldn’t figure out what to do with beavers he liked.
Wyoming -3 vs. Appalachian State - We went over this with Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago. DON’T GO TO LARAMIE WYOMING FOR A FOOTBALL GAME IF YOU DON’T HAVE TO. What are you doing, App?
Baylor +14.5 vs. Texas - We sure Texas is truly *that* good? They seem to weirdly own Alabama, but outside of their two Alabama games Quinn Ewers has been only okay. Baylor is definitely lacking in the talent department compared to Texas, but I think Baylor can really hang here if Texas isn’t 100% ready to go.
South Carolina -6 vs. Mississippi State - Honestly this one has entered and left and entered my board more than any pick this week. So I’m not extremely confident in this but South Carolina needs the win here bad. I think they win by 2-3 TDs.
Notre Dame +3 vs. Ohio State - There are a million reasons to pick Ohio State here. A lot of smart people I respect seem to be on the Buckeyes. But sometimes, especially when you nickname yourself The Godfather, you have to take a stand. And my stand is that Notre Dame is legitimately really good. Their defense is organized and fast. Their offense has found new life with Jesus-lookalike Sam Hartman at QB. Yes I am worried about Ohio States defense, but HC Marcus Freeman is 5-1 ATS as an underdog at Notre Dame so far. Give me the Irish.
Iowa +14.5 vs. Penn State - This metaphor I’m about to make is very specific to my generation of readers, so you readers in the 40+ demographic can skip to the next pick if you want that’s totally fine I don’t blame you. As for my under 40 generation - you know how the video game character Kirby sucks up other characters and then Kirby takes on the life of that character? That’s Iowa. They suck the life out of you and make you play a crappy football game. Penn State, for whatever reason, has historically been the team that most falls into this trap as they have lost their last 2 games against Iowa. They might be too talented to do that this year, but I’m going to take the Hawkeyes defense keeping it close.
Cal +21 at Washington - Justin Wilcox has been a cover machine as an underdog as Cal’s Head Coach. I think Washington is really really really good, but as a rule if Justin Wilcox is getting 21 points, I’m taking those 21 points.
That was a lot of games. Thanks for hanging with me to the end if you did. As a reward, SEC Shorts made fun of Alabama and Tennessee this week. That gets an automatic selection as the end of blog video this week.
Hope you all enjoy the games this weekend! Except for Kyle…
RICE RICE RICE!
Texas’ win against Bama may be devalued by the week but their dominating performance over the Owls looks better and better.
After a 2-0 performance last week thanks to that absolute piece of human garbage Phil Jurkovec doing what I knew he’d do, I’m getting a little cocky and going against the Godfather today.
As a Patriots fan, I am intimately familiar with the fall of a dynasty that seemed bullet proof. I can now rest easy at night knowing that there will in fact come a day where Bama is not Bama and that is going to be awesome. But it took essentially a decade of people declaring the Patriots dead for them to actually die and that only occurred when the cog to the machine left for Florida.
Nick may be eyeing a similar move with drops of cash for a Jupiter home and I’d encourage him to take the train down there as soon as possible but the fact is there’s 50 ways to say goodbye and he hasn’t said it yet. Hey Ole Misster, I’ll be rooting for you but unfortunately I don’t think the dynasty is dead just yet. Bama -6.5 in a game where they look like shit for 3/4s of it and somehow win by 10 (aka a replay of last season). Nick tells lane to Call Me Sir after the game.
I hope your friend Kyle enjoyed the paragraph above and I hope everyone has a great Friday.
https://youtu.be/A3Qvb7q9Nm0?si=e3f8Yf9IlJexP1-J