The Friday Walkthrough - Week 4
Keeping The Main Thing The Main Thing
On Sunday, Nick Chubb scored a his third touchdown of the afternoon to give the Browns a 30-17 lead with 1:55 seconds left on the clock over a terrible New York Jets team. In the ensuring 1:55 that remained, the Jets and 87 year old quarterback Joe Flacco scored a touchdown on a 66 yard pass, recovered an onside kick, and then went down and score again in the final seconds to win 31-30.
Now, whose fault was it that the Browns blew this 30-17?
You could blame the kicker, who missed the extra point after this touchdown and allowed it to be a 13 point game instead of a 14 point game
You could blame the 11 guys on defense, who allowed Joe freaking Flacco to score twice in two possessions
You could blame the defensive coordinator for drawing up terrible coverages that allowed these touchdowns to occur
You could blame the Special Teams unit for the Browns - just recover an onside kick like most normal teams do and the game is over
You could blame the Head Coach! Always fun to do that no shame there
Blame management! After all, this is the organization who traded for, and gave a record contract to, a guy being sued for Sexual Harrassment by so many women I had to google “How many women have sued Deshaun Watson for Sexual Harrassment?” (The answer is 24 have sued Watson himself, while 30 women have settled claims with the team. So many women there are multiple answers to this terrible question!)
But nooooooooooooo. The “internet” decided Nick Chubb, man who scored 3 touchdowns on the day, is the one to blame. Why? Because technically, if he had gotten just a first down but not a touchdown on the below play, the Browns could have run out the clock with kneel downs and they would have won the game 24-17.
So let’s go over the hypothetical ask for Nick Chubb here - you want him to A) avoid 11 world class athletes trying to tackle him with all of their effort and get the first down at the 2 yard line and B) IMMEDIATELY STOP ALL FORWARD MOMENTUM AND GO NO FURTHER.
Do we realize how absolutely insane of an ask this is? Similar attempts at his have been tried before and failed several times! And in those plays those RBs did screw up - they knew that the play was to stop short and they still couldn’t do it. Nick Chubb didn't even screw up because Browns coaches, as dumb as they are most of the time, aren’t even that dumb to ask him to do this.
Now you might be saying “Hey, Godfather, let’s not paint with a broad brush here. A few dumb idiots on the internet saying he messed up is not everyone.” To that I would say it was not just a few dumb idiots. That tweet above is The Sporting News. The below tweet? ESPN/SportsCenter.
This is such a story he had to take blame in his press conference because he was asked about it by actual NFL reporters. This isn’t just a few idiots. This is a stupidity plague infecting millions of people.
Here’s a fun fact - Nick Chubb actually successfully did not score on a play similar to this last year! He got the first down, and instead of scoring the touchdown he ran out of bounds and secured the win for the Browns as they could just kneel out the clock. It was super impressive that he recognized the situation and did the right thing!
Did you notice the title of the video?
“Nick Chubb screws Browns bettors on final play of Texans game.”
Not “Nick Chubb Secures Win for Browns With Smart Play” or “Heads Up Move By Chubb Results In Browns Victory”. Nope - football player screws over average Joe sitting that is on his couch at home bitching at the TV.
If you’ve been reading this blog for a bit you know we are focused on the gambling aspects of sports and that’s not going to change. But we, the collective gambling and fantasy enthusiasts that watch and wager on these sports, need to do a better job of recognizing we are not the main character of the story. We are lucky to be an audience to the spectacle, but we are not the show and we need to stay in our own lane.
You can get frustrated you got unlucky when your fantasy team blew a lead or your bet goes the wrong way at the last minute (Lord knows how angry I get every week), but these guys have much more at stake than we ever will. One wrong move or great catch or perfect play call can make or break careers they have worked their entire lives for.
Obviously I know this little blog isn’t going to reverse the course of this societal plague but I implore you, my dear Fading Tuesday reader, to try and remember this a little bit when it comes to betting and fantasy sports while you watch the games this season.
With that being said, let’s talk about our bets.
The Picks (3-3 ATS Last Week, 17-12-2 This Season)
We have a 16 bets this week and this blog is already going long, so here are some rapid fire explanations:
Air Force -24 vs. Nevada: Air Force will bounce back after an anemic effort against Wyoming. Expect a beatdown here against a terrible Nevada team. This game is on Friday night
Boise State/UTEP under 45.5: UTEP, after a strong year for the program last year got them into a bowl game, is back to being pretty terrible. Boise State has also regressed, especially offensively. We expect a low scoring affair here in friendly confines of The Sun Bowl. This game is on Friday night
Michigan -16.5 vs. Maryland: This is spot we’ve waited for all season - Maryland starting 3-0 and people thinking they might be improved and then BAM lose by 31 to a legitimate team
Minnesota -2.5 vs. Michigan State: Michigan State might stink. Minnesota might be actually pretty good. Row the Boat
Clemson -7 vs. Wake Forest: In the Tuesday blog I said both of these teams look extremely similar to the 2021 versions of themselves. Clemson won last year’s game 48-27
Buffalo +6 vs. Eastern Michigan: We LOVE EMU here at Fading Tuesday, but they are pretty stinky as a home favorite under Chris Creighton (7-11 ATS as a home favorite, 14-19 ATS after a win)
Kansas -7 vs. Duke: Kansas’s offense is legitimately great. Like UGA levels of efficiency and explosiveness. The Duke win over Northwestern 2 weeks ago was impressive at the time and Duke is much improved, but NW might be terrible as they were handled at home by Southern Illinois last weekend.
Miami (OH) +7 vs. Northwestern: Did you read the summary for the last game? You did? Good
Utah State +3 vs. UNLV: Utah State is 0-3 ATS. UNLV is 3-0 ATS. 3 weeks ago Utah State would be favored handily and now they are home underdogs. Utah State still has Blake Anderson at coach and Logan Bonner at QB, so we trust the Aggies to play much better ball coming off a bye week in the ultimate “buy-low” spot
Purdue -19.5 vs. Florida Atlantic: Purdue is 1-2 and cannot afford to mess around here. Coming off a bad last minute loss we expect them to look sharp
Ohio State/Wisconsin Under 56.5 - Don’t feel like we need to explain Wisconsin Under bets
James Madison +7.5 vs. App. State - Betting against App. State feels like rooting for Thanos in the Avengers movies or rooting for the Aliens in Independence Day right now. And while both antagonists ultimately lost their battles, I would argue they both covered the spread (Thanos technically won the first game and he ultimately still took out some of the Avengers, while the Aliens did take out terrible cities New York, Washington DC, and LA). All we need is JMU to stay within the number
Utah -15.5 vs. Arizona State - Genuinely wondering what we are missing here - this spread should be roughly 21. Will feel either really smart or really stupid after this one is over
Arkansas +1.5 vs. Texas A&M - Arkansas HC Sam Pittman is 11-4 ATS as an underdog. They have the best player on the field in KJ Jefferson. #WPS
Kansas State +12.5 vs. Oklahoma - We bet on Kansas State against Oklahoma every year and they cover every single year (winning the game on the field in both 2019 and 2020 as massive dogs). Just going to bet the Cats here until it doesn’t hit
Oregon State +6 vs. USC - We’ve been waiting for this bet all offseason. Oregon State, the unofficial team of Fading Tuesday, going up against overrated USC (although they actually might be pretty good) in the friendly confines of Corvallis, OR. This was our spot. Everything we believe in fundamentally here at FT was in play in this game. We thought we were going to get 7-10 points, but we are only getting 6. Fine, whatever, still feeling pretty good. But then this tweet made the rounds yesterday:
Ben Fawkes@BFawkes22More money has been wagered on Oregon State to cover the spread (now +6.5) vs. No. 7 USC than any CFB or NFL game so far this week at @CaesarsSports (h/t @TheMaxMeyer). Book has taken a $110,000 bet on Oregon State, plus several five-figure wagers on the Beavers to cover3:42 PM · Sep 22, 202221 Reposts · 145 LikesWe don’t exactly love that Oregon State has become the big money sharp play in Vegas. We were hoping we would be alone on this block. But apparently a lot of other people are loving Beaver as well. We are still riding with the Beavs, but let the record show I don’t love that a lot of other people are as well.
The People’s Parlay: +894797 for the 14 games above that are on Saturday (aka not Air Force or Boise/UTEP). A $10 would win $89,480. We don’t need this to win, but I would love to get to Saturday afternoon with just a chance at winning this just to feel that rush of excitement.
Fading Tuesday vs. The Stock Market
This week we have added a column showing how much each stock increased or decreased since last week call WoW ROI. 3-3 for Fading Tuesday means we lose a tiny bit of money week over week (reminder that a $1,200 bet wins a little less than $1,100, not $1,200, so a week with the same amount of wins and losses means you lose money). However, Fading Tuesday’s portfolio is not impacted by the Fed raising interest rates yet again or by inflation concerns. So we will just keep chugging along doing our thing as we are up nearly 7% on the year. Jeff Bezos? Not so much.
We have seemingly bet on most of the games this weekend above, so we are going to pass on the “Other Notables” section and instead skip right to…
THE #SICKOSONLY GAMES OF THE WEEK
THAT’S RIGHT PEOPLE THAT SAYS GAMES, AS IN MULTIPLE GAMES. Because how can you pick between…
Hawai’i at New Mexico State - Two of the worst teams in college football play on an over-the-top streaming service called FloSports. I think I have heard of every TV channel or sports related app out there. I have bet on both Hawai’i and New Mexico State games this year AND watched those games I bet on. I am extremely fluent in sports television programming and know very well who these teams play each week and what channel they are on. With that all said, I have literally never heard of FloSports
Rutgers at Iowa - The lowest Total in college football history is 34 points, which has occurred three times according to The Action Network. The current Total for this game is 34. There is a real chance this game closes below 34, making it the lowest Total in the known history of college football gambling. Hell yes Iowa welcome back to this section of the blog
Florida at Tennessee - Wait…how is this a #Sickos game? College Gameday is going there…it’s the 3:30 SEC game…what is going on? Pretty simple actually - Tennessee is favored by -10.5. They are supposed to win this game. And they might win easily. But if Florida is leading into the second half, this is going to become an all-time “Tennessee fans become a meme” football game (most recently seen when Tennessee hosted Ole Miss last year). If Tennessee takes care of business (and we think they probably do), this is not a #Sickos game. But if they don’t…
To close this week, I want to tell a quick college football-related story bragging on my wife, The Godmother. Earlier this week she met UGA WR, Super Bowl Champion, and just all-around great person Malcolm Mitchell at an event for the board of a non-profit she is on called Literacy Action. For those unaware, Mitchell is a reading advocate who has written multiple children’s books the past few years.
This was a pretty large event that Literacy Action hosted, with roughly 250 people showing up to see Mitchell speak about his story. I say this to say that she was not expecting to talk extensively with Mitchell in this large gathering. Obviously I wouldn’t be sharing this story if that was actually the case, as fate dictated she ended up sitting at the same table with Mitchell and talking shop (both books and football) with him for an extended period of time.
During this conversation, The Godmother put someone else at the table in their place discussing UGA’s great defense. This person was surprised that UGA still had this good of a defense this year since the defense lost “almost their entire first string” to the NFL Draft. To this, The Godmother responded “I don’t know why you’re surprised, we (UGA) have strings and strings of defense!”.
Mitchell, who knew she was a UGA grad but didn’t realize she could turn a phrase like this, was blown away to the point he had to ask her “Where are you from, again?” Whether that was because of her love for the Dawgs or her linguistic ability to compare Georgia’s defense to yarn or string cheese, I’m not sure. After the event, they spoke further and he so enjoyed the conversation so much that he mentioned to her he will need to get more involved with this non-profit. Is my wife becoming best friends with a Super Bowl winner? Time will tell.
To recap - while I write a blog about sports and betting that has a couple hundred views a week, my wife helps run an organization improving adult literacy and meets (and impresses) Super Bowl Champions in the process. Basically the same impact on the world.
If you are so inclined, you can donate to Literacy Action here. If you want to know a little more about Mitchell, below is a video of his story on CBS News from the week before he was an incredibly key component to the Patriots 28-3 comeback against the Falcons (sorry Falcons fans).
If you enjoyed this blog and haven’t subscribed yet, you can do so (for free!!) below the video so these posts go straight to your inbox every Tuesday and Friday.
Let’s have ourselves a weekend!
No first half Tennessee bet for scriptwriter Josh Heupel? You’re right though. For that reason the mood of this game is gauged by the early 3rd quarter snapshot.
"Strings and strings of defense". Iconic. God that's so good. Nice article too, Godfather.
We've got comment section picks. Lots of them. Not sure how I'm feeling this week. Was mostly on a 2 week CFB hiatus in weeks 2/3 so I don't know if I'm behind or if I just see things more clearly this way. Regardless, we're firing a full round this weekend. Apologies if these lines have moved.
Cincinnati -16 vs. Indiana: Tom Allen is actually one of the worst coaches in the country covering spreads and Indiana might actually be terrible as they needed several small miracles to beat Western Kentucky last weekend. Cincinnati will see this as a G5 vs. P5, David and Goliath game, so I expect them to come out motivated.
Syracuse -9.5 vs. Virginia (Friday Night): One team has Robert Anae calling their offense, the other one had him last year and now suck. Some times it's about riding the hot teams that Vegas hasn't caught up to yet. Go orange.
Rutgers +7.5 vs. Iowa: This feels too easy, I hate this bet.
Hawaii/NMSU Over 55: Yep, double sickos only games of the week. You're welcome. Both offenses are bad, but I'm hoping the defenses are worse. Don't need a ton of points from either team, just need a normal/close-ish game.
Toledo/SDSU Under 46.5: Not explaining SDSU unders
ULL -9.5 vs ULM: The battle for Louisiana. Actual animus here. ULL might have regressed significantly but in a game where there is no need for coaching motivation, I'll take the team that still has much more talent.
South Carolina -22.5 vs. Charlotte: South Carolina needs to be on SportsCenter for something other than catching repeated haymakers from Brock Bowers. Charlotte has a bottom 10 defense. Look for Carolina to crack some necks.
Arkansas/A&M Under 48: Low total, hoping Jimbo drags his feet like he his prone to do on offense.
WMU/SJSU Under 51: Like this total a lot more than the previous. SJSU is a generally well coached operation that likes to chew clock.
Mississippi State -30 vs. BGSU: Not to brag but I'm 3-0 in State games this year (sorry about last week). I'm not a believer in BGSU after their upset of Marshall. Lay the big number with an SEC team that needs to get right before the meat of their SEC schedule.
Oregon/Washington State Under 57.5: My theory here is that people think Washington State is still being led by their offense after Mike Leach and Rolovich coached here. That couldn't be further from the truth. Looking for a defensive struggle in Pullman.
Washington -14 vs. Stanford: Stanford might be trying to change their stripes, but Kalen Deboer is one of the best coaches in the country that nobody is talking about. They could win this game in the 1st quarter.
Marshall -3.5 vs. Troy: Last week Marshall lost to abominable BGSU and Troy should have pulled the upset against Cindarella App State. Therefore we're taking Marshall here.
Auburn -7 vs. Missouri: Did yall see Auburn get smacked in one of the most anticipated non-con games of the year last week? So did I. Lay the points.
Miami -25.5 vs. MTSU: Miami needs to change the narrative of losing to a team without an offense last week on national television. Look for TVD to cook in an unnecessary beatdown.
Central Michigan vs. Penn State -28: Nobody realized how good James Franklin teams are until it's too late. Lay em.
UCLA -21.5 vs Colorado: UCLA almost lost to South Alabama last week, they obviously aren't going to cover against a conference rival, right? Wrong.
Wyoming vs. BYU -22: Again, fading last week's results. Wyoming is uniquely designed to stop only Air Force. BYU is basically a much better version of Wyoming and hopefully will be getting their two best receivers back.
That's all I got this week. Hope it's enough. Happy hunting.